| [Member (365WT)]answers [Chinese ] | Time :2019-05-01 | Traditional econometric methods have broad and narrow meanings. The generalized econometric methods mainly include time series analysis, regression analysis, input-output analysis, optimization methods, etc. The narrow econometric method is to use the mathematical analysis method with regression analysis as the core to conduct causal analysis on the research object and reveal its Internal regularity, thus conducting economic structural analysis, prediction, policy evaluation and theoretical testing. The main discussion here is the narrow concept.
The traditional econometric method has been successful and brilliant, mainly reflected in the "solid development in the 1950s" and "the real expansion in the 1960s" (L·Klein), which was the stable development of the Western world economy after the war. The period is also a period in which neoclassical economics prevailed. However, after entering the 1970s, it encountered serious challenges like neoclassical economics. Based on historical data, traditional econometric methods that look for patterns from historical development to study the future fail in many applications. The reason is also very simple, economic development has entered a period of turmoil, there is no longer a good regularity in history, and future development does not follow the laws of history.
Econometric methods face challenges and develop rapidly in the face of challenges. Its development mainly includes four aspects: the improvement and development of traditional methods, the wide application of game theory methods, the introduction of fuzzy mathematics methods, and the exploration of nonlinear system methods. |
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